The clash between the deputy president and the Public Prosecutor is also about power and party politics, writes Mathatha Tsedu

The accused : Deputy President Jacob Zuma asked "How can an investigation be mediated?"

The accuser : Bulelani Ngcuka is still an ANC stalwart

Futile : Cyril Ramaphosa

By allowing Ramaphosa, a possible opponent, to 'rescue' him, Zuma would essentially have dug his own political grave

Cyril Ramaphosa should have known that even the attempt to open talks about the "process" towards mediation on the high-voltage issue of the Scorpions investigation into Deputy President Jacob Zuma, would never work. It was a stillborn idea for two reasons.

Firstly, Zuma ended up as deputy president by default, after the Inkatha Freedom Party leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, refused the position. Zuma may well have had no hope or aspiration of occupying the presidency when he came to the job - but he does now.

It is therefore totally unacceptable for Zuma - having carefully cultivated his image and position - to have to watch his dreams go up in flames because of unproven allegations of possible impropriety in the arms deal.

He sees the investigation through a political lens as an attempt to destroy his name and character, so that he will be pushed aside when the time arrives for Thabo Mbeki to relinquish the presidency.

The ANC has the daunting task of deciding on a successor for Mbeki, where there is no clear frontrunner.

Cyril Ramaphosa has moved out of politics and is now a businessman, but - unlike Tokyo Sexwale - he has not moved out of the ANC leadership . In fact, he came second in the national executive committee elections at the 51st ANC conference in Stellenbosch last December.

But more than anyone, Ramaphosa has been seen - despite his protestations - as the one with enough political clout and willingness, if not overt ambition, to be President.

Secondly, part of the allegations against Director of Public Prosecutions Bulelani Ngcuka is that his friendship with Ramaphosa led to Ramaphosa not being charged in the Molope Foods case. In fact, Ramaphosa, as chairman of Molope when it folded, is the complainant in the case, in which fraud and theft are alleged against two employees.

Nevertheless, Ramaphosa is seen as Ngcuka's man. From where Zuma is sitting, agreeing to Ramaphosa's mediation would have meant a tacit admission that a solution other than that through the courts was necessary.

This might have created the impression that Zuma would have been unable to defend himself if the investigation had led to a court case.

By allowing Ramaphosa, a possible future opponent, to "rescue" him, the deputy president would have dug his own political grave.

On a strategic level, Zuma would have seen Ngcuka agreeing to meet with Ramaphosa as opening up a judicial process to possible intervention by a political player.

A confident prosecutor would surely have had no need to do this.

Ngcuka, who has been adamant that he will investigate the allegations against Zuma, and will not be intimidated, has been feeling the political heat. His utterances about the inappropriateness of the sentences given to Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and Tony Yengeni, as well as his statement that the Scorpions unit might have been unnecessarily "aggressive" in its approach, are an indication of a climb-down by a man unable to deal with the venom of criticism unleashed by erstwhile comrades, particularly ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe.

Moreover, Ngcuka's meeting with Ramaphosa set an unhealthy precedent, where possible plea bargaining could be discussed through a political emissary who has nothing to do with the case. This is illegal, and Zuma was right to refuse to have anything to do with it other than comment on its oddity. "How can an investigation be mediated?" he said, stating the obvious.

So why did it happen?

It is unclear who started the process, but so far the one credible assertion has been that Ivor Powell, one of Ngcuka's men, made the first call, saying a way to end the matter quickly needed to be found. That call went to Yunus Shaik, brother of Schabir Shaik, Zuma's financial adviser and the man at the centre of the allegations involving the arms deal.

Yunus Shaik had apparently named Ramaphosa as a candidate to mediate, after lawyer Ismail Ayob had been approached and had turned down the request.

Also, word from the Scorpions is that former Transport Minister Mac Maharaj had called them, also asking for mediation. After this, Yunus Shaik was called.

Irrespective of who started the mediation ball rolling, it was a ball that found enough people ready to play - from Ngcuka to Shaik.

But why did Ngcuka even entertain the idea?

The matter is dragging on at a political level, disturbing the flow of preparations for the election by the ANC, a party Ngcuka not only served in Parliament, but remains a committed member of.

It seems doubtful that a case against Zuma can or will be brought to court. The same appears to apply to Mac Maharaj.

The dilemma, therefore, is how to swiftly complete the investigation , release Zuma - and the ANC - from this millstone, and charge those against whom a case seems easy to prove, like Schabir Shaik.

Shaik, however, is proving as deft at delaying tactics as the Boeremag trialists, and will tie the Scorpions in legal applications that seem destined to end up in the Constitutional Court. As long as Shaik continues with his legal shenanigans, the case will continue .

Mediation would therefore give the Scorpions a quick route out, if Shaik agreed to a plea bargain. It also appears that the money made by the Maharaj family, through Zarina Maharaj's consultancy work for Schabir Shaik, might not have been declared for tax purposes. A plea bargain for her could also see charges of tax evasion: for which a fine could be organised.

All this would help resolve the matter speedily, and allow the ANC to campaign without its number two facing possible charges of bribery.

This would also allow Ngcuka the space to begin rebuilding his relationship with the ANC . He has been stung by accusations that he is a stooge of white "old regime" officers in the Scorpions unit who are determined to "get at" ANC leaders.

Whether this is true or not remains to be seen. What is certain is that the political pressure that has been brought to bear on Ngcuka has been immense. He did not expect it and was unprepared.

Ramaphosa's ill-fated entry into this lion's den was merely a false glimmer of hope that has now disappeared

For Zuma, squashing the case would be a major boost to his standing within the ANC. He would be able to say the entire exercise was politically motivated and begin paving the way for his elevation to lead the party in 2007 - and South Africa in 2009.

This is the most likely scenario, unless the investigation has uncovered issues that might not stand the test of criminal law, but would be sufficiently embarrassing and damaging to his name if made public. This could potentially involve issues such as his alleged dependence on his friends Schabir Shaik and Vivian Reddy for constant financial bail outs.

Zuma supporters have expressed a concern that he is "naive with money" and "borrows heavily" to sustain an extensive family. Such a blemish might not be criminal, but is hardly a trait expected of a President.  

With acknowledgements to Mathatha Tsedu and the Sunday Times.