Publication	The Natal Witness
Date	2005-11-20
Reporter	William Saunderson-Meyer
Web Link	www.witness.co.za

If disgraced ANC Deputy President Jacob Zuma is acquitted in next year's fraud and corruption trial, he is assured of being the next president of South Africa. That, the newspapers tell us, is the consensus of the overwhelming majority of political pundits.

Those whose hearts sink at the prospect of a Zuma presidency should take courage, for group-think is a cosy but dangerous business. Aside from the fact that the received wisdom of the majority is often spectacularly wrong - whether it is internationally on the likelihood of the Soviet bloc crumbling or locally as to whether the Springboks are going to win - there are factors at play that may yet impede this supposedly preordained succession.

The on-again, off-again saga of the rape allegation against Zuma is just one of these. Whether or not the matter goes to court, whether or not the allegation is withdrawn, it highlights a tragic flaw in Zuma's character: a belief that he is exempt from the need for behaviour appropriate to those who carry the burden of high public office. Alternatively, that he is naive to the point of stupidity in his indifference to public perception.

Given the paranoia in the Zuma camp's ranks about politically motivated smears by those who oppose his succession to President Thabo Mbeki, how does Zuma allow himself *2 to be in a potentially compromising position with a nubile young woman *1?

Unless Zuma's political opponents deliberately framed him - and even if found innocent of rape - one again has to decide whether Zuma is arrogantly unconcerned about public opinion or merely lacks the good sense that one would expect of a future president.

It echoes the event that led to him being fired in the first place. The Zuma camp's position on the criminal charges he faces is simple: the issue is not guilt or innocence, but that the prosecution was politically motivated. They are oblivious to the fact that even if Zuma was found not guilty, his association with the criminally corrupt - despite warnings from within the African National Congress - indicate a lack of judgment (sic) *3 and hence an unsuitability as the next president.

Another factor that may yet impede Zuma's supposedly assured succession is that of international perceptions.

Admittedly, the South African Communist Party and the Congress of SA Trade Unions' imperviousness to local opinion on the Zuma issue indicates that they are hardly likely to worry over-much what foreigners think of a polygamist implicated in corruption, fraud and possibly rape. But there are powerful commercial interests that will be concerned over the likely overseas fallout following such a character taking the helm of a modern economy and democracy.

The main problem is not a collapse of the currency, although that would likely happen *4. The export sector and Cosatu in any case share some common ground in their view that the rand is too strong and is damaging SA's global competitiveness. More problematic is the possibility of a more volatile fiscal environment with wild exchange rate fluctuations that inhibit investor confidence.

More serious is the likelihood of political and economic uncertainty, which will create in SA exactly the kind of concerns among the international community over stability that have taken the ANC 10 long, hard years to overcome.

Mbeki is not a popular man. His aloof mien and his peripatetic international schedule has left him remote from ordinary South Africans and, crucially, the ANC voting fodder who are responding so enthusiastically to Zuma's warmth and unerring populist instincts.

Yet if they thought about it, it is difficult to imagine how such ANC voters could seriously imagine Zuma achieving what Mbeki has achieved over the past six years in terms of economic stability and international political influence. More crucial is whether they will be willing to risk losing the advantages so painstakingly gained for the country.

Mbeki may not be the best president this country could have, but Zuma must assuredly be one of the worst.

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*1  Nubile

A adjective

1 marriageable

http://www.wordreference.com/definition/nubile

2describes a woman who is young and sexually attractive

http://www.freesearch.co.uk/dictionary/nubile

A 31-year old HIV-positive, AIDS activist who contracted HIV from previously being raped, is deserved of the highest medical and psycological care and support society and the nation can offer, but they are not nubile.

*2  Is it the demon drink?

Or other mind-altering substance?

*3  "judgment" or "judgement".

Judge Hilary Squires issued his judgment wherein he made a finding about the former deputy president's lack of judgement concerning a financial advisor who seemed to have lost his moral compass.

*4  A la Zimbabwe @ :

US$1,00 = ZW$76 000  (Official exchange rate)

US$1,00 = ZW$90 000  (Unofficial exchange rate)