Against the backdrop of a simmering succession tussle, SA’s political leadership has been plunged into a state of unprecedented crisis by the top-level purge at the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) at the weekend.

The struggle between President Thabo Mbeki and his sacked former deputy Jacob Zuma threatens to degenerate into open rebellion against Mbeki, risking paralysis of the African National Congress (ANC) and government.

Following the axing of apparently pro-Zuma NIA agents, Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils was forced yesterday to disavow what he called “hoax e-mails” purportedly implicating ANC and government leaders in a plot to tarnish Zuma and ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe.

A series of e-mails and internet chat-room conversations purportedly between ANC leader and businessman Saki Macozoma, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka and National Prosecuting Authority (and Scorpions) head Vusi Pikoli has been circulated among ANC and tripartite alliance leaders in the past few weeks.

They are said to show an attempt by the three to discredit Zuma and Motlanthe as potential successors to Mbeki as ANC president. They allude to apparent collusion between the Scorpions, Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon and Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. The e-mails are also said to discuss how to leak damaging information about Motlanthe to the media. But all factions expressed scepticism about the e-mails’ authenticity.

Kasrils’ spokeswoman Lorna Daniels said: “The minister warned the public to disregard sinister e-mails doing the rounds, which are clearly fraudulent and aim to cause confusion. They are reminiscent of Stratcom operations during the apartheid era.”

Daniels said an ongoing probe by intelligence Inspector-General Zolile Ngcakani would now look into the “origins” of the Macozoma e-mails.

Leon and Macozoma denied any involvement and said they were the victims of a smear campaign.

Sources in the NPA said it was “highly unlikely” that Pikoli would be party to a plot against Zuma and Motlanthe.

“He is a loyal ANC cadre. If you’d asked the same thing about Bulelani (Ngcuka, former NPA head), maybe. But not Pikoli,” said a source who has worked with both men.

However, despite the denials, an atmosphere of paranoia surrounds SA’s political elite.

Business Day understands that senior officials at ANC headquarters have begun using hand signals in confidential conversations in the belief that they are being watched and listened to by state security organs loyal to one or the other faction in the Mbeki-Zuma fight.

Security agents are believed to be hard at work gathering “dirt” on people believed to be opponents of their political masters.

This has now led to state institutions being compromised and has triggered bloodletting within and between the security agencies.

One senior ANC national executive committee member said there was deep unhappiness in the NIA over Kasrils’ axing of Masetlha.

The source said the lower ranks of the agency do not think Kasrils’ stance is politically neutral.

As Zuma’s trial draws closer and his campaign gains ground, insiders believe the anti-Mbeki rebellion will only intensify.

Already Zuma partisans are fanning out across the country visiting ANC branches and regions. The message they carry is that the NIA ousters are further evidence of Mbeki’s use of state organs to stop Zuma’s presidential bid.

With acknowledgements to Karima Brown, Vukani Mde and the Cape Times.