Opinion

ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe was putting it mildly when he said this week that the organisation was "going through pain" over what has become known as the "Zuma issue".

For some years the ANC and its alliance partners have been dogged by the corruption allegations - which were eventually formulated as criminal charges - against Zuma, a struggle veteran who evolved into a post-apartheid grassroots hero.

Forced into a corner in the face of the investigators' "prima facie evidence" against Zuma, and a high court judge describing his relationship with Durban businessman Schabir Shaik as "generally corrupt", President Thabo Mbeki fired his deputy.

The move unleashed unprecedented anger and a groundswell of support for Zuma and has pitted ANC members against each other, the ANC against its alliance partners (Cosatu and the SACP) and the ANC Youth League.

The anger is mounting, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, where Zuma is revered in many communities. On more than one occasion, ANC premier S'bu Ndebele and Zuma's replacement - Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka - have been publicly booed by Zuma supporters when they tried to address rallies. Last week's raids by the Scorpions on Zuma's homes only served to add fuel to the fire.

The issue is not only threatening to divide the ANC between pro-Zuma and pro-Mbeki supporters but also to disrupt its preparations for the forthcoming local government elections.

The issue also looms large in the local government polls.

In KwaZulu-Natal, instead of campaigning for elections, the ANC leadership has instead had to go on a campaign to explain to branches and communities the issues surrounding Zuma's firing. But ANC grassroots structures and supporters are not ready to be appeased, nor are they willing to turn their backs on Zuma.

Some have gone so far as to suggest that Ndebele has "lost control" of ANC structures in KwaZulu-Natal and is no longer able to provide leadership on this issue. However, this has been fiercely rejected by the ANC leadership in the province.

University of KwaZulu-Natal political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu says the ongoing disorderly conduct of some ANC members would suggest that this issue is far from being a thing of the past. But he notes that there are some positive developments that can be deduced from the whole saga.

"In a nascent democracy such as ours, it is not unusual to find that debate tends to be stifled, especially when one considers the shortcomings of our party-list system and what some may call crony capitalism. As such, one would expect that there would be unquestioned party loyalty if not loyalty to the ANC leadership."

Ndlovu blames the reigning confusion over the issue on the poor way the ANC has handled the Zuma saga.

Some ANC insiders, however, blame the problems from the Zuma issue to the emergence of a "democratic centralism" style of leadership, which took away grassroots leadership, disconnected the ANC from the masses, and created a "leadership elite" which rules by "remote control".

"So, no one is able to articulate and explain the Zuma saga to the grassroots with any measure of authority, hence the Youth Day uprising in KwaMashu, Umlazi and Utrecht," says an ANC insider.

Ndlovu further argues that another interesting thing about the Zuma saga is the general perception that he is a victim of political character assassination.

"Fuelling this perception is that in the last 10 years some popular ANC leaders have either been systematically marginalised, or have opted to pursue careers in the private sector.

"But unlike in previous years when there was deafening silence, the perceived marginalisation of Zuma is proving to be a serious divisive force within the ANC and the tripartite alliance," he says.

Ndlovu's colleague at the Durban Institute of Technology, Kiru Naidoo, notes that despite the current difficulties faced by the party, the ANC has a remarkable capacity to close ranks. "Inner party discipline is prized above all else. These are historical features going back to the early part of the last century. Splits and breakaways are extremely rare occurrences," he says.

The ANC, says Naidoo, has evolved into a complex and sophisticated party, with its tentacles extending from party, to state, to business, and to civil society. "Its leadership all the way through the ranks knows exactly where their bread is buttered. No-one is likely to rock the party to the extent of risking its grip on power," says Naidoo.

However, Ndlovu warns that as long as the leadership at both national and provincial levels do not deal with this matter effectively, it could have disastrous effects for the ANC at the next local government elections. The challenge now for the ANC and its alliance leadership is to extricate itself from this political quagmire.

Ndlovu suggests that the best way for the ANC to do this is to communicate better, dispel the popular perception that Zuma is being victimised and be seen to be with Zuma during these difficult times.

With acknowledgements to Sipho Khumalo and the Cape Times.