In vintage Thabo Mbeki style, the president last week published a bombshell letter in his ANC Today column, rubbished his alliance partners, made a dubious call for a commission of inquiry, and high-tailed it out of the country just as things were getting interesting.

This came after he sidestepped a nine-hour crisis meeting of the tripartite alliance, which was called to find a way out of the quagmire SA’s ruling alliance has dug for itself over the firing and prosecution of former deputy president Jacob Zuma.

Mbeki chose instead to write the allies a long public letter, saying how little he thought of their political conspiracy theories, not to mention their efforts at finding consensus. In the missive, he “strongly suggests” that the alliance should form a commission to probe claims that he led a counter-revolutionary plot to keep Zuma out of the presidency of the African National Congress (ANC).

Many are unable to decide whether Mbeki’s move was a stroke of tactical brilliance or the actions of a desperate man at odds with the realities of his own party. Mbeki, it is also suggested, is a lame-duck president serving his last term, and thus preoccupied with his legacy.

It may be a bit of both. Mbeki’s move was astute in that it has shifted the burden of proof to whoever is responsible for the conspiracy rumours. It is aimed at snuffing out the accusers and humiliating them in public when they fail to make a credible case.

Moreover, by taking the suggestion to the public domain, Mbeki has put the whole alliance on the back foot. Now, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party are spending the bulk of their time “clarifying” that they have never officially identified the comrade president with any “neoliberal, capitalist, right-wing, counter-revolutionary, anti-Zuma” plot.

But Mbeki made a mistake with his public stunt. He has further eroded trust in his leadership with this latest gamesmanship, and proved his detractors right.

Last week’s crisis meeting decided all the proposals regarding Zuma would be subject to further internal alliance discussion. This included Mbeki’s dramatic, 11th-hour suggestion of a commission. By publishing the suggestion, Mbeki demonstrated his disdain for alliance processes. He also gave credence to suggestions that the latest intrigues in the ANC are intractable precisely because Mbeki is deeply implicated. This, ironically, obviates any need for an inquiry.

For his allies, Mbeki’s behaviour proves he is not a unifying figure, above the fray, but an armed partisan in the muckraking succession battle of the ANC.

But, most importantly for his own position in the ANC, Mbeki has confirmed the view that he and his senior ministers put themselves above party discipline, raising questions about their accountability to the party and its alliance. To whom are they accountable, and whose mandate do they execute? These are questions alliance leaders can now feel justified in asking.

Their style has also encouraged the rank and file to embarrass the leadership and overturn its decisions ­ as evidenced at the national general council meeting last month. It also explains the booing of Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka whenever she appears before a crowd. In the unlikely event that a commission does get off the ground, serious doubts about its effectiveness will emerge. Who can chair such a thing, given the degree of mistrust and division in the alliance? It would not be a statutory inquiry, so they would not even be able to haul out a retired judge ­ and this would rob the thing of any legal or political gravitas.

What would the terms of reference be? Who would be foolish enough to stand before a non-statutory commission ­ with no legal protection ­ and accuse the president of political mischief-making? For as long as Mbeki remains president ­ and he has four years to go ­ that kind of behaviour is political suicide.

Can this commission call state bodies such as intelligence agencies and the National Prosecuting Authority, which stands accused as an anti-Zuma conspirator?

Then there is the pesky issue of “The Truth”. According to the president’s letter, arriving at the truth will be the goal of the commission. But, in the ANC, what constitutes The truth often depends on whom one is speaking to. In any case, Mbeki is adept enough at the art of interpreting information to know that any fact can be disputed.

In reality, the president should relax. The ANC he leads is awash with conspiracy theories, and it will continue to be so until the movement finally weans itself from its legacy of exile and operating underground.

By calling for an inquiry, assuming he is serious, Mbeki shares with Cosatu the dubious honour of making a politically and constitutionally untenable suggestion. This merely shows that Mbeki shares Cosatu’s dilemma, and is politically as desperate. The only certainty in the Zuma debacle is that no one, not even Mbeki, controls the genie that has been let out of the lamp *1.

Brown is political correspondent.

23.     A person who had been found guilty of giving false witness shall be hurled down from the Tarpeian Rock.