“Just give it some time and support for Jacob Zuma will have died — it cannot happen overnight — but it will happen,” said a senior official from a left-wing ally of African National Congress (ANC).

The rape allegations against the former deputy president could not have come at a better time for a small vocal anti-Zuma camp within the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communist Party (SACP).

“It is difficult for most people to defend rape — we did not see this coming. Now some of the people who were reluctant to take a position on their support for Zuma have also begun talking,” remarked another official.

Cosatu’s central committee met this week to emerge with support for Zuma. SACP’s central committee followed suit, albeit more muted.

“They cannot just denounce the man, after having backed him so arduously,” said a sarcastic member of the alliance.

Enthusiasm for Zuma, however, has become more measured. SACP deputy general-secretary Jeremy Cronin has got the ball rolling in his party with a document proclaiming that Zuma, an ANC traditionalist, never did represent the left within the ANC alliance.

He acknowledges that within the left allies, the pro-Zuma campaign was merely driven by an anti-Mbeki sentiment.

At the heart of this factionalism is of course the succession issue. After several battles with the ruling partner over the ideological direction of the country’s economic policies, and in the absence of any visible opposition to Mbeki’s presidency within the ANC, the left were ready to lend their weight to whoever came along to challenge Pretoria.

Even if he had been found guilty of corruption? And now rape? Was the support a sign of extreme desperation or mere stupidity? And there are bewildered members of the left who have been wondering why an SACP led by Blade Nzimande, a close ally of the late Harry Gwala, who never did get along with Zuma, was so enthusiastic about its support for the ANC deputy president.

But of course one must not forget the role the wily Zuma himself played in getting the reds to bat for him. About three years ago, at the first whiff of a possible corruption case against him, Zuma began showing up at Cosatu and SACP dos.

Cronin attempts to jolt the memory of his fellow members of the red brigade with the reminder that their fight is actually about ideas and ideology and not about Mbeki or Zuma.

In fact, it was never about Mbeki either, he says as he attempts to depersonalise the left’s battle for the ANC’s soul. The tiff all along was about what Mbeki actually represented.

Well, no one knows the left better than Cronin. Based on his argument, it seems it is actually immaterial who succeeds Mbeki, as long as the left has space to debate and room to manoeuvre within the ruling alliance.

Watch this space.

What about the several thousands of Zuma supporters in the mainstream ANC?

“We are concerned about the show of support for Zuma particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. In fact, we have heard of young women who are even willing to forgive him for ‘a stupid mistake’ [rape allegations],” a worried ANC leader said.

Many blame ANC leader S’bu Ndebele for his show of support for Zuma. But a KwaZulu-Natal ANC official pointed out that it was “more of a crisis management exercise” in the absence of any position taken by the party’s national leadership, after Zuma had been implicated in the Shaik trial.

“Zuma had already used the silence to his advantage by drumming up support for himself,” remarked the official. And ANC members were only too willing to lend a ear to a popular leader, who had been tried without having his day in court.

So when the ANC’s provincial executive in KwaZulu-Natal met to decide on a position, “We actually did have a choice; we could have gone either way.” But they decided to ride the crest of the wave of popular sympathy for Zuma.

The official contended, however, that support for Zuma in the province has also become more restrained. “One did notice at Zuma’s last court appearance, the crowd enthusiasm was more measured.”

Even KwaZulu-Natal is now thankful for the rape allegation. The once-enthusiastic ANC Youth League leadership, who had also backed Zuma has been silent on the subject. “Should Zuma be charged of rape, which is more serious than fraud — few will have a choice. He will naturally have to step down as deputy president of the party until investigations are completed — once that happens, the support is going to go away,” said an ANC Youth League member.

Could it be that a rape allegation will put an end to the intrigue over a presidential race defined by under the table arrangements?

With acknowledgements to Douglas Green and The Natal Witness.