While Jacob Zuma extended an olive branch to an unimpressed President Thabo Mbeki, it is hard to look past the national executive committee (NEC) list to learn that things will never be the same in the ANC.

Zuma referred to the atrocious behaviour of some of his supporters on the opening day of the ANC conference.

The behaviour of the delegates towards the perceived Mbeki grouping was despicable, and, coupled with the voting pattern, rubbished Zuma's attempt at bridging the gap.

Then, there are the assumptions of the media, the Zuma supporters and many others who have installed the ANC as the ruling party that - despite the despicable character of some of the Zuma sideshows, including Schabir Shaik, Ranjeni Munusamy, Zwelinzima Vavi and Tony Yengeni - South Africans will be so hamstrung that they will vote for the ANC without too much thought.

While the ANC was a liberation movement, it was hard to vote against it. Who would vote against Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu, and so on - considering all they sacrificed to make this country what it is?

But the ANC is no longer a liberation movement. It simply is a political party prone to the cult of the personality. This change is thanks to Cosatu, the SA Communist Party, ANC Youth League and others.

They took respected politicking to the level only seen in the US. But even Americans do not taunt those they do not support.

More than 250 ANC members occupy seats in parliament. As long as this number remains, there will be some form of peace in the Zuma camp.

But if South African voters exercise their democratic right to vote for the party that best represents their interests, peace will become full-blown warfare.

There's a necessity for a united opposition that forgets about fighting for leadership positions and instead concentrates on getting grassroots support.

If, say, Mosiuoa Lekota, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Trevor Manuel, Geraldine Fraser-Moleketi and Mbhazima Shilowa come together with the United Democratic Movement, Inkatha Freedom Party and Independent Democrats to form a centre-left party, it could make a huge difference in the fortunes of the Zuma/Vavi/Mbalula bloc.

Furthermore, with floor crossing, chances are that many MPs will feel that their positions will be untenable for the next elections and they may jump ship, taking away their votes. If the ANC loses 15% of its support, even if it retains a majority, one can start seeing the house of straw being blown away.

Thanks to the behaviour of the ANC delegates in Polokwane, the ANC's aura of invincibility is suddenly gone, which is why I question the media's assumptions that Zuma will have any significant influence in the running of the ANC after 2009, even ignoring his legal problems.

Anyone who underestimates Kgalema Motlanthe does so at their own peril. While the ANC constitution does not allow for the deputy president to replace the president, he is smart enough to engineer himself into a position (and push Zuma and Mbeki out of the picture).

He has been at the centre of the hoax e-mail scandal as a victim and even managed to oppose Zuma while being on the Zuma ticket. He then criticised the NEC (himself included, but obviously targeting Mbeki) and has sailed under the radar.

Motlanthe is the biggest winner. He has managed to dupe both sides and is on his way to higher office. At least, he is preferable to Mr Kanga Shower.

Len Anderson
Banbury Cross

With acknowledgement to Len Anderson and Pretoria News.