The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is expected to decide in the second week of next month at the earliest whether to charge African National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma and national police commissioner Jackie Selebi.

Coincidentally Zuma delivers his first public speech as the ruling party's president in the week acting NPA head Mokotedi Mpshe returns from holiday.

Mpshe is on leave until January 7. The Zuma and Selebi dossiers are lying on his desk, and investigators are awaiting his decision on whether to prosecute.

Charges against a police commissioner are unprecedented in law enforcement in SA.

It is also not clear if President Thabo Mbeki will continue to defend Selebi, having asked the country repeatedly to "trust" him on allegations of Selebi's involvement with alleged drug kingpin Glenn Agliotti. Only Mbeki, as head of state, has the authority to appoint and suspend the national police commissioner.

Meanwhile, Zuma's chances of succeeding Mbeki as head of state will take a knock if he faces corruption charges again.

Legal experts believe a trial would take several years, and Zuma would still be embroiled after Mbeki's term ends in 2009.

Mbeki is not constitutionally eligible to stand for a third term, and ANC presidents have received the endorsement of the ruling party as candidate for state president since 1994.

Within hours of Zuma's election as ANC president last week, Mpshe said the state had "sufficient evidence" to charge him.

Zuma was implicated in offences that led to businessman Schabir Shaik being jailed for 15 years after being found guilty of corruption and fraud. It is believed that tax evasion charges are central to the draft indictment against Zuma, and involve R4m.

The initial case against Zuma was thrown out of court last year after the NPA could not present the Durban High Court with a final indictment.

Should Zuma be charged before the ANC's January 8 anniversary statement, it is unclear whether he will deliver his first major statement as ANC leader.

ANC spokesman Tiyani Rikhotso said yesterday: "We have always believed that one is innocent until proven guilty. If the ANC president is charged, the collective leadership will sit down and discuss the matter. The ANC president, the ANC deputy president and the ANC treasurer have said that talk of charges against Zuma is mere speculation; that is all it is right know."

Meanwhile, Selebi's fate is awaiting Justice Minister Brigitte Mabandla's input to the NPA. The NPA said this month it had reached a decision on whether to prosecute Selebi, but could not reveal this until Mabandla had studied a report it had submitted to her. As justice minister she is the political head of the NPA.

A review panel responsible for establishing whether Selebi had a case to answer on criminal allegations against him had made findings on the matter, and submitted them to Mpshe.

After studying the panel's report, Mpshe, who then made a decision on whether Selebi should be prosecuted, submitted the report to Mabandla.

Selebi, who was at the ANC's Polokwane national conference last week, had two warrants issued against him three months ago. Both were cancelled in September after Mbeki suspended NPA head Vusi Pikoli and appointed Mpshe to act in his place.

With acknowledgements to Hajra Omarjee, Sapa and Business Day.